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Day-ahead electricity price forecasting using back propagation neural networks and weighted least square technique

S. Surender REDDY,Chan-Mook JUNG,Ko Jun SEOG

《能源前沿（英文）》 2016年 第10卷 第1期   页码 105-113 doi: 10.1007/s11708-016-0393-y

摘要： This paper proposes the day-ahead electricity price forecasting using the artificial neural networks (ANN) and weighted least square (WLS) technique in the restructured electricity markets. Price forecasting is very important for online trading, e-commerce and power system operation. Forecasting the hourly locational marginal prices (LMP) in the electricity markets is a very important basis for the decision making in order to maximize the profits/benefits. The novel approach proposed in this paper for forecasting the electricity prices uses WLS technique and compares the results with the results obtained by using ANNs. To perform this price forecasting, the market knowledge is utilized to optimize the selection of input data for the electricity price forecasting tool. In this paper, price forecasting for Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland (PJM) interconnection is demonstrated using the ANNs and the proposed WLS technique. The data used for this price forecasting is obtained from the PJM website. The forecasting results obtained by both methods are compared, which shows the effectiveness of the proposed forecasting approach. From the simulation results, it can be observed that the accuracy of prediction has increased in both seasons using the proposed WLS technique. Another important advantage of the proposed WLS technique is that it is not an iterative method.

关键词： day-ahead electricity markets     price forecasting     load forecasting     artificial neural networks     load serving entities    

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Estimation of composite load model with aggregate induction motor dynamic load for an isolated hybrid

Nitin Kumar SAXENA,Ashwani Kumar SHARMA

《能源前沿（英文）》 2015年 第9卷 第4期   页码 472-485 doi: 10.1007/s11708-015-0373-7

摘要： It is well recognized that the voltage stability of a power system is affected by the load model and hence, to effectively analyze the reactive power compensation of an isolated hybrid wind-diesel based power system, the loads need to be considered along with the generators in a transient analysis. This paper gives a detailed mathematical modeling to compute the reactive power response with small voltage perturbation for composite load. The composite load is a combination of the static and dynamic load model. To develop this composite load model, the exponential load is used as a static load model and induction motors (IMs) are used as a dynamic load model. To analyze the dynamics of IM load, the fifth, third and first order model of IM are formulated and compared using differential equations solver in Matlab coding. Since the decentralized areas have many small consumers which may consist large numbers of IMs of small rating, it is not realistic to model either a single large rating unit or all small rating IMs together that are placed in the system. In place of using a single large rating IM, a group of motors are considered and then the aggregate model of IM is developed using the law of energy conservation. This aggregate model is used as a dynamic load model. For different simulation studies, especially in the area of voltage stability with reactive power compensation of an isolated hybrid power system, the transfer function of the composite load is required. The transfer function of the composite load is derived in this paper by successive derivation for the exponential model of static load and for the fifth and third order IM dynamic load model using state space model.

关键词： isolated hybrid power system (IHPS)     composite load model     static load     dynamic load     induction motor load model     aggregate load    

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Research on the valveless piezoelectric pump with Y-shape pipes

ZHANG Jianhui, LU Jizhuang, XIA Qixiao

《机械工程前沿（英文）》 2007年 第2卷 第2期   页码 144-151 doi: 10.1007/s11465-007-0024-8

摘要： A piezoelectric pump with its Y-shape elements is presented. Two Y-shape pipes are fixed outside the chamber serving as an inlet and outlet, with the chamber and a piezoelectric vibrator being the actor. The pump has the potential to be miniaturized and integrated. Eddies occurring in the Y-shape elements are smaller, which is beneficial for the transport of living cells or long-link macromolecules. In this paper, the structure of the pump is first presented. Then, the equations on the change in volume and the mean pressure in the chamber are established, as well as the relation between the flow rate and the working frequency of the piezoelectric vibrator. Moreover, the relation between the mean pressure in the chamber and the working frequency of the piezoelectric vibrator is established. Finally, experiments are carried out to test the characteristics of the pump and to verify the correction of the theory on this pump.

关键词： chamber serving     beneficial     working frequency     long-link     correction    

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Calculation method of load distribution on pipe threaded connections under tension load

Shoujun CHEN, Lianxin GAO, Qi AN

《机械工程前沿（英文）》 2011年 第6卷 第2期   页码 241-248 doi: 10.1007/s11465-011-0219-x

摘要：

This paper presents a new calculation method that can calculate the load distribution on pipe threaded connections under tension load. On the basis of elastic mechanics, the new method was developed by analyzing each thread tooth, and a new deformation and covariant equation by making a mechanics analysis on each thread tooth was obtained. Compared with the traditional method proposed by the previous references, the new deformation and covariant equation could be used to describe the relation between the previous and the next thread tooth. By applying the new method on the sample of P-110S pipe threaded connection, the obtained results show that the load on thread tooth mainly concentrates on the four or five threads engaged and the middle teeth were not utilized well to bear the loads. The model offers a new way to calculate the loads carried on the thread teeth under tension load.

关键词： load distribution     calculation method     pipe threaded connections     tension load    

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Comparison of optimal capacitor placement methods in radial distribution system with load growth andZIP load model

Veera Venkata Satya Naryana MURTY, Ashwani KUMAR

《能源前沿（英文）》 2013年 第7卷 第2期   页码 197-213 doi: 10.1007/s11708-013-0249-7

摘要： In this paper, a combined power loss sensitivity (PLS) index-based approach is proposed to determine the optimal location of the capacitors in the radial distribution system (RDS) based on the real and reactive combined loss sensitivity index, as capacitor placement not only reduces real power loss with voltage profile improvement but also reduces reactive power loss due to the reactive power compensation in the network. The results have been obtained with the existing methods of power loss index (PLI) and index vector (IV) method for comparison. Besides, the optimal placement has been obtained with the proposed method as well as existing methods and the total kVar support has been obtained. In addition, the results of net cost savings for the 10-, 34-, and 69-bus systems are obtained for comparison. Moreover, the results have been obtained for a large system of 85 buses to validate the results with combined sensitivity based approach. Furthermore, the load growth factor has been considered in the study which is essential for the planning and expansion of the existing systems, whereas the impact of the realistic load model as ZIP load model has been considered for the study of all the systems.

关键词： load growth     load models     reactive power compensation     radial distribution system     power loss index (PLI)     power loss sensitivity (PLS)     index vector (IV)    

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让工程爆破技术更好地服务社会、造福人类——我国工程爆破60 年回顾与展望

冯叔瑜,郑哲敏

《中国工程科学》 2014年 第16卷 第11期   页码 5-13

摘要：

结合典型爆破工程，回顾了我国工程爆破自20 世纪50 年代以来的发展历史，将其总结为“起步、成长、壮大”三个阶段，简要介绍了各阶段工程爆破基础理论、工程实践、科学研究和行业组织的主要成果。并对我国工程爆破行业未来的发展方向进行了展望。

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A practical multi-lane factor model of bridges based on multi-truck presence considering lane load disparities

《结构与土木工程前沿（英文）》 2021年 第15卷 第4期   页码 877-894 doi: 10.1007/s11709-021-0756-2

摘要： Many bridge design specifications consider multi-lane factors (MLFs) a critical component of the traffic load model. Measured multi-lane traffic data generally exhibit significant lane disparities in traffic loads over multiple lanes. However, these disparities are not considered in current specifications. To address this drawback, a multi-coefficient MLF model was developed based on an improved probabilistic statistical approach that considers the presence of multiple trucks. The proposed MLF model and approach were calibrated and demonstrated through an example site. The model sensitivity analysis demonstrated the significant influence of lane disparity of truck traffic volume and truck weight distribution on the MLF. Using the proposed approach, the experimental site study yielded MLFs comparable with those directly calculated using traffic load effects. The exclusion of overloaded trucks caused the proposed approach, existing design specifications, and conventional approach of ignoring lane load disparity to generate comparable MLFs, while the MLFs based on the proposed approach were the most comprehensive. The inclusion of overloaded trucks caused the conventional approach and design specifications to overestimate the MLFs significantly. Finally, the benefits of the research results to bridge practitioners were discussed.

关键词： bridges     multi-lane factor     traffic load     lane load disparity     multi-truck presence     weigh-in-motion data    

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Shape design of arch dams under load uncertainties with robust optimization

Fengjie TAN, Tom LAHMER

《结构与土木工程前沿（英文）》 2019年 第13卷 第4期   页码 852-862 doi: 10.1007/s11709-019-0522-x

摘要： Due to an increased need in hydro-electricity, water storage, and flood protection, it is assumed that a series of new dams will be build throughout the world. The focus of this paper is on the non-probabilistic-based design of new arch-type dams by applying means of robust design optimization (RDO). This type of optimization takes into account uncertainties in the loads and in the material properties of the structure. As classical procedures of probabilistic-based optimization under uncertainties, such as RDO and reliability-based design optimization (RBDO), are in general computationally expensive and rely on estimates of the system’s response variance, we will not follow a full-probabilistic approach but work with predefined confidence levels. This leads to a bi-level optimization program where the volume of the dam is optimized under the worst combination of the uncertain parameters. As a result, robust and reliable designs are obtained and the result is independent from any assumptions on stochastic properties of the random variables in the model. The optimization of an arch-type dam is realized here by a robust optimization method under load uncertainty, where hydraulic and thermal loads are considered. The load uncertainty is modeled as an ellipsoidal expression. Comparing with any traditional deterministic optimization method, which only concerns the minimum objective value and offers a solution candidate close to limit-states, the RDO method provides a robust solution against uncertainty. To reduce the computational cost, a ranking strategy and an approximation model are further involved to do a preliminary screening. By this means, the robust design can generate an improved arch dam structure that ensures both safety and serviceability during its lifetime.

关键词： arch dam     shape optimization     robust optimization     load uncertainty     approximation model    

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Prediction of bed load sediments using different artificial neural network models

Reza ASHEGHI, Seyed Abbas HOSSEINI

《结构与土木工程前沿（英文）》 2020年 第14卷 第2期   页码 374-386 doi: 10.1007/s11709-019-0600-0

摘要： Modeling and prediction of bed loads is an important but difficult issue in river engineering. The introduced empirical equations due to restricted applicability even in similar conditions provide different accuracies with each other and measured data. In this paper, three different artificial neural networks (ANNs) including multilayer percepterons, radial based function (RBF), and generalized feed forward neural network using five dominant parameters of bed load transport formulas for the Main Fork Red River in Idaho-USA were developed. The optimum models were found through 102 data sets of flow discharge, flow velocity, water surface slopes, flow depth, and mean grain size. The deficiency of empirical equations for this river by conducted comparison between measured and predicted values was approved where the ANN models presented more consistence and closer estimation to observed data. The coefficient of determination between measured and predicted values for empirical equations varied from 0.10 to 0.21 against the 0.93 to 0.98 in ANN models. The accuracy performance of all models was evaluated and interpreted using different statistical error criteria, analytical graphs and confusion matrixes. Although the ANN models predicted compatible outputs but the RBF with 79% correct classification rate corresponding to 0.191 network error was outperform than others.

关键词： bed load prediction     artificial neural network     modeling     empirical equations    

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A method to predict cooling load of large commercial buildings based on weather forecast and internal

Junbao JIA,Jincheng XING,Jihong LING,Ren PENG

《能源前沿（英文）》 2016年 第10卷 第4期   页码 459-465 doi: 10.1007/s11708-016-0424-8

摘要： Considering the fact that customers of large commercial buildings have the characteristics of the higher density and randomness, this paper presented an air-conditioning cooling load prediction method based on weather forecast and internal occupancy density. The multiple linear feedback regression model was applied to predict, with precision, the air conditioning cooling load. Case analysis showed that the largest mean relative error of hourly and the daily predicting cooling load maximum were 18.1% and 5.14%, respectively.

关键词： commercial building     load prediction     multiple linear regression    

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Influence of axial load on the lateral pile groups response in cohesionless and cohesive soil

Jasim M. ABBASA,Zamri CHIK,Mohd Raihan TAHA

《结构与土木工程前沿（英文）》 2015年 第9卷 第2期   页码 176-193 doi: 10.1007/s11709-015-0289-7

摘要： The lateral response of single and group of piles under simultaneous vertical and lateral loads has been analyzed using a 3D finite element approach. The response in this assessment considered lateral pile displacement and lateral soil resistance and corresponding - curve. As a result, modified - curves for lateral single pile response were improved with respect to the influence of increasing axial load intensities. The improved plots can be used for lateral loaded pile design and to produce the group action design -multiplier curves and equations. The effect of load combination on the lateral pile group response was performed on three pile group configurations (i.e., 2×1, 2×2 and 3×2) with four pile spacings (i.e., = 2 , 4 , 6 and 8 ). As a result, design curves were developed and applied on the actual case studies and similar expected cases for assessment of pile group behavior using improved p-multiplier. A design equation was derived from predicted design curves to be used in the evaluation of the lateral pile group action taking into account the effect of axial load intensities. It was found that the group interaction effect led to reduced lateral resistance for the pile in the group relative to that for the single pile in case of pure lateral load. While, in case of simultaneous combined loads, large axial load intensities (i.e., more than 6 , where is lateral load values) will have an increase in -multiplier by approximately 100% and will consequently contribute to greater group piles capacities.

关键词： piles     pile group     spacing     configuration     combined load    

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Analysis of load and adaptability of disc cutters during shield tunneling in soft–hard varied strata

《结构与土木工程前沿（英文）》 2023年 第17卷 第4期   页码 533-545 doi: 10.1007/s11709-023-0946-1

摘要： The disc cutters of shield machines exhibit unsatisfactory adaptability and performance during the soft–hard varied strata tunneling process. To analyze the rotation state, cutting performance, and adaptability of disc cutters during shield tunneling in soft–hard varied strata, the Holmquist Johnson Cook and Federal Highway Administration constitutive models are introduced to numerically simulate the failure process of materials on the excavation face and to calculate the load of disc cutters. Additionally, the parameters of the models are modified based on laboratory disc cutter excavation test results. The results of numerical calculation can reflect the load level and the behavior of the disc cutters during operation. The tangential loads of the disc cutters during the cutting of four typical soft-strata excavation face models are numerically calculated, thus providing reference values for the starting torque of the disc cutters. A greater penetration is suggested for soft-strata tunneling to allow the disc cutters to rotate smoothly and continuously as well as to guarantee a better cutting effect. The disc cutters in the center of the cutterhead should be specified with a lower starting torque to prevent uneven wear, rotation stagnation, cutterhead clogging, and other adverse phenomena.

关键词： shield tunneling     disc cutter load     laboratory excavation test     numerical calculation     soft–hard varied strata    

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State identification of home appliance with transient features in residential buildings

《能源前沿（英文）》 2022年 第16卷 第1期   页码 130-143 doi: 10.1007/s11708-022-0822-z

摘要： Nonintrusive load monitoring (NILM) is crucial for extracting patterns of electricity consumption of household appliance that can guide users’ behavior in using electricity while their privacy is respected. This study proposes an online method based on the transient behavior of individual appliances as well as system steady-state characteristics to estimate the operating states of the appliances. It determines the number of states for each appliance using the density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise (DBSCAN) method and models the transition relationship among different states. The states of the working appliances are identified from aggregated power signals using the Kalman filtering method in the factorial hidden Markov model (FHMM). Thereafter, the identified states are confirmed by the verification of system states, which are the combination of the working states of individual appliances. The verification step involves comparing the total measured power consumption with the total estimated power consumption. The use of transient features can achieve fast state inference and it is suitable for online load disaggregation. The proposed method was tested on a high-resolution data set such as Labeled hIgh-Frequency daTaset for Electricity Disaggregation (LIFTED) and it outperformed other related methods in the literature.

关键词： nonintrusive load monitoring (NILM)     load disaggregation     online load disaggregation     Kalman filtering     factorial hidden Markov model (FHMM)     Labeled hIgh-Frequency daTaset for Electricity Disaggregation (LIFTED)    

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Interaction behavior and load sharing pattern of piled raft using nonlinear regression and LM algorithm-based

《结构与土木工程前沿（英文）》 2021年 第15卷 第5期   页码 1181-1198 doi: 10.1007/s11709-021-0744-6

摘要： In the recent era, piled raft foundation (PRF) has been considered an emergent technology for offshore and onshore structures. In previous studies, there is a lack of illustration regarding the load sharing and interaction behavior which are considered the main intents in the present study. Finite element (FE) models are prepared with various design variables in a double-layer soil system, and the load sharing and interaction factors of piled rafts are estimated. The obtained results are then checked statistically with nonlinear multiple regression (NMR) and artificial neural network (ANN) modeling, and some prediction models are proposed. ANN models are prepared with Levenberg–Marquardt (LM) algorithm for load sharing and interaction factors through backpropagation technique. The factor of safety (FS) of PRF is also estimated using the proposed NMR and ANN models, which can be used for developing the design strategy of PRF.

关键词： interaction     load sharing ratio     piled raft     nonlinear regression     artificial neural network    

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Load shedding scheme for an interconnected hydro-thermal hybrid system with SMES

D. TYAGI, Ashwani KUMAR, Saurabh CHANANA

《能源前沿（英文）》 2012年 第6卷 第3期   页码 227-236 doi: 10.1007/s11708-012-0198-6

摘要： The frequency of the power system varies based on the load pattern of the consumers. With continuous increase in the load, the frequency of the system keeps decreasing and may reach its minimum allowable limits. Further increase in the load will result in more frequency drop leading to the need of load shedding, if excess generation is not available to cater the need. This paper proposed a methodology in a hybrid thermal-hydro system for finding the required amount of load to be shed for setting the frequency of the system within its minimum allowable limits. The load shedding steps were obtained based on the rate of change of frequency with the increase in the load in both areas. The impact of superconducting magnetic energy storage (SMES) was obtained on load shedding scheme. The comparison of the results was presented on the two-area system.

关键词： critical load     frequency response     load shedding     multi-area system     rate of change of frequency     superconducting magnetic energy storage (SMES) device    

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标题 作者 时间 类型 操作

Day-ahead electricity price forecasting using back propagation neural networks and weighted least square technique

S. Surender REDDY,Chan-Mook JUNG,Ko Jun SEOG

期刊论文

Estimation of composite load model with aggregate induction motor dynamic load for an isolated hybrid

Nitin Kumar SAXENA,Ashwani Kumar SHARMA

期刊论文

Research on the valveless piezoelectric pump with Y-shape pipes

ZHANG Jianhui, LU Jizhuang, XIA Qixiao

期刊论文

Calculation method of load distribution on pipe threaded connections under tension load

Shoujun CHEN, Lianxin GAO, Qi AN

期刊论文

Comparison of optimal capacitor placement methods in radial distribution system with load growth andZIP load model

Veera Venkata Satya Naryana MURTY, Ashwani KUMAR

期刊论文

让工程爆破技术更好地服务社会、造福人类——我国工程爆破60 年回顾与展望

冯叔瑜,郑哲敏

期刊论文

A practical multi-lane factor model of bridges based on multi-truck presence considering lane load disparities

期刊论文

Shape design of arch dams under load uncertainties with robust optimization

Fengjie TAN, Tom LAHMER

期刊论文

Prediction of bed load sediments using different artificial neural network models

Reza ASHEGHI, Seyed Abbas HOSSEINI

期刊论文

A method to predict cooling load of large commercial buildings based on weather forecast and internal

Junbao JIA,Jincheng XING,Jihong LING,Ren PENG

期刊论文

Influence of axial load on the lateral pile groups response in cohesionless and cohesive soil

Jasim M. ABBASA,Zamri CHIK,Mohd Raihan TAHA

期刊论文

Analysis of load and adaptability of disc cutters during shield tunneling in soft–hard varied strata

期刊论文

State identification of home appliance with transient features in residential buildings

期刊论文

Interaction behavior and load sharing pattern of piled raft using nonlinear regression and LM algorithm-based

期刊论文

Load shedding scheme for an interconnected hydro-thermal hybrid system with SMES

D. TYAGI, Ashwani KUMAR, Saurabh CHANANA

期刊论文